Laynce Nix: Waste of a Roster Spot

Yesterday I discussed the production of John Mayberry Jr. and questioned why he hasn’t been given the opportunity to play full-time without a platoon partner.  With the announcement that Juan Pierre will make the Phillies opening day roster, Mayberry will likely lose even more at bats to two of the least productive outfielders on any major league roster.

I used the word “inexplicable” to describe the signing of Nix, and today I will include the word “asinine” to describe the concept of both of these clowns stealing at-bats from a younger, better player.  Pierre’s signing was equally puzzling, considering he arguably brings less to the table than Nix, and both are significant downgrades over Mayberry.

Please, Stop Messing with John Mayberry Jr.

John Mayberry Jr. was somewhat of a surprise contributor to last year’s 102-win Phillies team.  Mayberry’s college career at Stanford was solid, though unspectacular, and he never posted an OBP over .332 at any stop above A-ball on his way to the Major Leagues.  One thing Mayberry did have on his side, however, was pedigree.

Mayberry’s father, John Mayberry Sr., put together a 14-year career that spanned four teams and saw him accumulate 30.3 Wins Above Replacement, despite a BABIP of only .253 for his career.  Thus far, Mayberry Jr.’s batted balls have fallen in at a much higher clip (.291 BABIP) and, though he has always been on the radar, he showed glimpses last season of the player he may become.

Economics of Baseball: Dodgers Acquisition a Likely Overpay

It’s often said that the value of something is the price at which somebody is willing to acquire it.  In accounting terms, however, when the price exceeds the actual value of the company’s assets, the excess is referred to as “goodwill.”  Additionally, when a useful or productive asset/company is acquired, the acquiring firm is paying not just for the physical assets and/or goodwill of a firm, it is paying for the projected future earnings of the firm as well.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have announced that a group led by NBA Hall-of-Famer-turned-businessman Magic Johnson has won the bidding for the team at an approximate price of $2.15 billion.  This represents the highest price paid for any Major League Baseball team ever…by almost 2.5x.  Many scenarios exist in which the Dodgers become more competitive and maybe even start their own TV station like the Yankees or Mets with YES and SNY, respectively, but the economics simply to do not support a valuation of $2 billion.

Why the Phillies Won’t Miss Ryan Howard as Badly as Fans Think

As a Phillies fan, I constantly hear about how Ryan Howard is the soul of the team, how he is irreplaceable and how the Phillies offense is bound to sputter this year without his presence.  I have also grown tired of trying to explain how, from a sabermetric perspective, Howard simply isn’t that productive offensively.   SABRists are fully aware of what Howard brings to the table: an above average, but in no way spectacular, ability to produce.  In 2011, Howard ranked outside of the top 10  first basemen in wRC+, a measure of a player’s offensive worth relative to the rest of the league.

Howard is indisputably a poor fielder.  Among first baseman who played over 1000 innings last year, only Prince Fielder, Eric Hosmer, and Freddie Freeman had a worse Ultimate Zone Rating.  Though defensive metrics are unreliable on a yearly basis, their unreliability actually portrays Howard as a better fielder than he really is.  In 2010, Howard ranked 2^nd worst in MLB in field, and since both Hosmer and Freeman were rookies without a track record in the Big Leagues, it is impossible to conclusively determine their relative defensive worth.  We all know that Howard is a slow base runner, so I won’t belabor the point.

The point of this is to explain both qualitatively and quantitatively, in terms that the casual baseball fan can understand, why losing Howard for all of 2013 (or beyond) really wouldn’t be that much of a loss.

On Domonic Brown and Travis Snider

It appears that another spring training will come and go with Phillies personnel raving about the tools of Domonic Brown, while conceding that he isn’t quite “there” yet, though more and more it seems that “there” is a place Brown may never visit.  Though fans have grown impatient with GM Ruben Amaro’s handling of Brown, Brown simply hasn’t shown enough to stick in the Big Leagues, and the holes in Brown’s swing are difficult to miss.  Despite the promise he’s shown in the minors (.298/.390/.453 in AAA) Brown has produced an OPS+ of 88 in 280 plate appearances in his age 22 and age 23 seasons.  Brown starts the 2012 season at 24 years old and still may develop into the player most analysts and scouts believe he can be.