The Miami Marlins displayed a dynamic, high-powered offensive attack on the way to routing the Phils in their home opener. The Phillies’ impatient offense yet again was nowhere to be found, and the game featured more mental errors that contributed to the good guys being on the wrong side of 6-2 score.
It happened again. No, not the Pirates beating the Phillies (although that happened, too). No, I’m talking about one of the top hitters in the Phillies lineup inexplicably dropping a bunt in a situation that certainly didn’t require it in the early innings. For that matter, I’m also talking about a series of managerial miscues that cost the Phillies today’s game.
Let’s set the stage: It’s the top of the 6th inning and the Phillies have a 2-1 lead. Juan Pierre has just reached on a bunt single and advanced to second on an errant Pedro Alvarez throw. This brings the heart of the Phillies lineup to the plate: Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, and Hunter Pence.
The Phillies are an experienced team with a track record of success and world series aspirations. It’s pretty simple: In order to get to the playoffs, this squad will need to consistently outscore its opponents. Run prevention is a strength of a team that, 3 out of 5 days, trots out a legitimate Cy Young contender to the mound. It’s scoring runs that’s going to be a problem.
After an offensive explosion in the first game of the year, in which the Phils defeated the Pirates 1-0, the Philllies began last night’s game with back-to-back singles. Unfortunately, this is when the team peaked offensively for the evening.
Let’s be honest: American League baseball is an inferior brand of baseball. Pitchers don’t hit and the strategy of when to yank a struggling starter never really comes into play. Just as I made National League picks, I’ve also made American League picks, although I haven’t explained my rationale in any detail now that the season has begun and there are truly more interesting things to write about than my predictions that are guaranteed to be wrong:
Now that the regular season is finally upon us, I figured it’s time to share my picks for the various division winners, wild cards, and awards. I’ll start today with the NL, and finish tomorrow with the AL and my World Series prediction.
The recent acquisition of the Dodgers has had a major ripple effect on the rest of MLB; owners are re-assessing the values of their clubs, new media contracts are being negotiated, and, from a personnel perspective, there is now a significantly increased demand for upcoming free agents given the Dodgers’ intention of spending, and spending big, to win.
Barring options and extensions and their limited commitments in the upcoming years, the Dodgers will theoretically have the opportunity to make a run at Josh Hamilton, Matt Garza, and/or Zack Greinke. Rumors indicate that the Giants have extended Matt Cain for 5-years and $110 million, and Joey Votto is also rumored to be wrapping up an extension with the Reds, meaning that the Dodgers will be able to more acutely focus their efforts on the remaining free agents.
Yesterday I discussed the production of John Mayberry Jr. and questioned why he hasn’t been given the opportunity to play full-time without a platoon partner. With the announcement that Juan Pierre will make the Phillies opening day roster, Mayberry will likely lose even more at bats to two of the least productive outfielders on any major league roster.
I used the word “inexplicable” to describe the signing of Nix, and today I will include the word “asinine” to describe the concept of both of these clowns stealing at-bats from a younger, better player. Pierre’s signing was equally puzzling, considering he arguably brings less to the table than Nix, and both are significant downgrades over Mayberry.
John Mayberry Jr. was somewhat of a surprise contributor to last year’s 102-win Phillies team. Mayberry’s college career at Stanford was solid, though unspectacular, and he never posted an OBP over .332 at any stop above A-ball on his way to the Major Leagues. One thing Mayberry did have on his side, however, was pedigree.
Mayberry’s father, John Mayberry Sr., put together a 14-year career that spanned four teams and saw him accumulate 30.3 Wins Above Replacement, despite a BABIP of only .253 for his career. Thus far, Mayberry Jr.’s batted balls have fallen in at a much higher clip (.291 BABIP) and, though he has always been on the radar, he showed glimpses last season of the player he may become.
It’s often said that the value of something is the price at which somebody is willing to acquire it. In accounting terms, however, when the price exceeds the actual value of the company’s assets, the excess is referred to as “goodwill.” Additionally, when a useful or productive asset/company is acquired, the acquiring firm is paying not just for the physical assets and/or goodwill of a firm, it is paying for the projected future earnings of the firm as well.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have announced that a group led by NBA Hall-of-Famer-turned-businessman Magic Johnson has won the bidding for the team at an approximate price of $2.15 billion. This represents the highest price paid for any Major League Baseball team ever…by almost 2.5x. Many scenarios exist in which the Dodgers become more competitive and maybe even start their own TV station like the Yankees or Mets with YES and SNY, respectively, but the economics simply to do not support a valuation of $2 billion.
As a Phillies fan, I constantly hear about how Ryan Howard is the soul of the team, how he is irreplaceable and how the Phillies offense is bound to sputter this year without his presence. I have also grown tired of trying to explain how, from a sabermetric perspective, Howard simply isn’t that productive offensively. SABRists are fully aware of what Howard brings to the table: an above average, but in no way spectacular, ability to produce. In 2011, Howard ranked outside of the top 10 first basemen in wRC+, a measure of a player’s offensive worth relative to the rest of the league.
Howard is indisputably a poor fielder. Among first baseman who played over 1000 innings last year, only Prince Fielder, Eric Hosmer, and Freddie Freeman had a worse Ultimate Zone Rating. Though defensive metrics are unreliable on a yearly basis, their unreliability actually portrays Howard as a better fielder than he really is. In 2010, Howard ranked 2nd worst in MLB in field, and since both Hosmer and Freeman were rookies without a track record in the Big Leagues, it is impossible to conclusively determine their relative defensive worth. We all know that Howard is a slow base runner, so I won’t belabor the point.
The point of this is to explain both qualitatively and quantitatively, in terms that the casual baseball fan can understand, why losing Howard for all of 2013 (or beyond) really wouldn’t be that much of a loss.
Batting Cage Hero 